DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Aug 22

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
August 22, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $1.25 near $73.85. The spot-month contract has moved above resistance at the $73.34 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Resistance is now marked at the $75.22 and $76.08 retracement points. Support is found at the 200-day moving average at $70.41 and the $70.30 August low. The October contract is trading at a modest $0.25 discount to the November contract, with the forward curve then flipping into backwardation—a bullish market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $1 near $67, as the October contract moves into the nearest delivery position with Tuesday’s expiration of the September contract. The spot-month contract is again testing retracement resistance at $67.12, with resistance then found at $68.05. Support is found at the $64.63 200-day moving average and the $64.43 August low. WTI is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 3.25cts near $2.1560. The spot-month contract has moved through retracement resistance at $2.1276, with resistance now found at the $2.1893 23.6% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Support is found at the $2.0760 August low. The forward curve is in a weakening contango market structure through December delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 3.0cts near $2.0485. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at the $2.0425 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Resistance is again found at the $2.0525 and $2.0789 retracement points for the June-to-August downtrend. Support is found at the $1.9671 August low which overlaps with the $1.9674 50% retracement point for the seasonal winter-to-spring uptrend. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation through February delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 0.3cts at $2.977, edging lower after trading at a fresh eight-week high of $2.993. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, with resistance found at the $3.053 June high. Support is marked at the 200-day moving average at $2.855, and the $2.838 100-day moving average. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through January delivery. The relative strength index shows an easing overbought market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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