DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Aug 28

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
August 28, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $0.25 near $76.50, trading near a seven-week high of $76.87. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend. The spot-month contract settled above resistance at the $76.11 61.8% retracement point for the July-to-August downtrend. Resistance is now marked at $77.24, the 23.6% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend, and at the July high of $79.51. Support is found at the $75.10 100-day moving average. October delivery is trading at a discount to the November contract, with the forward curve then flipping into backwardation and the calendar spreads widening. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was little changed near $68.85. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at $69.43, the 50% retracement point for the June-to-July uptrend. Retracement resistance is then found at $70.81. Support is found at the $64.86 200-day moving average and the $64.43 August low. WTI is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 0.75cts near $2.2215, trading at a $2.2295 seven-week high. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend. Resistance is found at the $2.2332 July high. September and October deliveries are trading near parity ahead of the September contract’s expiration Friday (8/31), with the forward curve in a weakening contango market structure from the October contract through February delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up fractionally near $2.0910. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at the $2.1052 61.8% retracement point for the June-to-August downtrend. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation through February delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 0.5cts at $2.881. The spot-month contract is testing support at the $2.878 50% retracement point for the June-to-July downtrend. Support is again found at the 200-day moving average at $2.850, and the $2.846 100-day moving average. Resistance is found at last week’s $2.993 eight-week high, and at the $3.053 June high. The September contract is trading at a modest premium to October delivery ahead of its expiration Wednesday afternoon, with the forward curve then moving into contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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