DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Aug 29

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
August 29, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was $0.25 higher at $76.20. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading near a seven-week high of $76.97 Tuesday. Resistance is marked at $77.24, the 23.6% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend, and at the July high of $79.51. Support is found at the $75.13 100-day moving average. October delivery is trading at a discount to the November contract, with the forward curve then flipping into backwardation—a bullish market structure. The October contract expires Friday (8/31). The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $0.35 near $68.85. The spot-month contract has tested resistance at $69.43, the 50% retracement point for the June-to-July uptrend, this week. Retracement resistance is then found at $70.81. Support is found at the $64.92 200-day moving average and the $64.43 August low. WTI is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 0.75cts near $2.2190. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a $2.2335 three-month high Tuesday. There is little resistance between Tuesday’s high and the $2.3069 May high. The forward curve is in a weakening contango market structure through January delivery ahead of the September contract’s expiration on Friday (8/31). The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was little changed near $2.0785. The spot-month contract faded in front of resistance at the $2.1052 61.8% retracement point for the June-to-August downtrend, trading at a $2.1014 three-week high Tuesday. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation through January delivery, with the September contract expiring Friday (8/31). The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was flat at $2.852, trading near a fresh three-week low at $2.844 ahead of its expiration this afternoon. The spot-month contract is testing support at the $2.848 200-day moving average and the $2.847 100-day moving average. Resistance is found at last week’s $2.993 eight-week high. The September contract is trading at a modest premium to October delivery, with the forward curve then moving into contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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