DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Aug 30

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
August 30, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was $0.50 higher near $77.60. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a fresh seven-week high of $77.91 overnight. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at $77.24, the 23.6% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend. Resistance is then found at the July high of $79.51 and June high of $79.70. Support is found at the $75.20 100-day moving average. The October contract, which expires Friday (8/31), is trading at a discount to the November contract. The forward curve flips into backwardation with the expiration of the October contract, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads widening. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $0.50 near $70.00. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a four-week high of $70.07 overnight. The spot-month contract has moved through resistance at $69.43, the 50% retracement point for the June-to-July uptrend. Retracement resistance is then found at $70.81. Support is found at the $64.99 200-day moving average and the $64.43 August low. WTI is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 1.0cts near $2.2535. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a $2.2536 fresh three-month high overnight. Resistance is found at the $2.3069 May high. The forward curve is in a weakening contango market structure through January delivery ahead of the September contract’s expiration on Friday (8/31). The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 1.45cts at $2.1205. The spot-month contract has moved through retracement resistance at $2.1052 and $2.1109, trading at a $2.1210 fresh four-week high. Resistance is now found at $2.1521, the 38.2% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend. Support is found at the $2.1022 100-day moving average. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation through January delivery, with the September contract expiring Friday (8/31). The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 2.1cts at $2.884, as the October contract moves into the front month position amid inside trade. The spot-month contract tested support at the $2.850 100-day moving average and $2.847 200-day moving average, trading at a fresh three-week low at $2.843 Wednesday. Resistance is found at last week’s $2.993 eight-week high. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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