DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Aug 31

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
August 31, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $0.35 near $77.40. The spot-month contract is pulling back from a $78.03 seven-week high traded Thursday, with resistance found at the July high of $79.51 and June high of $79.70. Support is found at the $75.25 100-day moving average. The October contract expires today (8/31), with the forward curve moving into backwardation once it rolls off the board, a bullish market structure. The calendar spreads are again widening. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down $0.45 at $69.80. The spot-month contract moved through psychological resistance at $70.00, trading at a $70.50 five-week high Thursday. Resistance is found at $70.81, the 38.2% retracement point for the June-to-July uptrend. Support is found at the $68.78 100-day moving average and again at the $65.06 200-day moving average. WTI is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 1.0cts near $2.2375, pulling back from a $2.2575 better-than three-month high ahead of the September contract’s expiration today (8/31). Resistance is found at the $2.3069 May high, with retracement support found at $2.1961 and $2.1893. The front end of the forward curve is flattening out through February delivery when it moves into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 1.5cts near $2.1285. The spot-month contract traded at a $2.1526 four-week high Thursday, testing resistance at $2.1521, the 38.2% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend. Support is found at the $2.1031 100-day moving average. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation through January delivery, with the September contract expiring today (8/31), trading at a roughly 13.4cts premium to October delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 3.9cts at $2.913. The spot-month contract reversed higher after testing support at the $2.852 100-day moving average and $2.846 200-day moving average, trading at a three-week low at $2.841 Thursday. Resistance is found at the August high of $2.993. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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