DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | DEC 21

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
December 21, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $1.35 at $53.00, trading at a $52.79 15-month low. The spot-month contract has support at $49.88, the 61.8% retracement point for the 2016-to-2018 uptrend. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through November 2019 delivery. The relative strength index shows building oversold pressure.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down $0.65 near $45.25, trading at a $45.16 17-month low. The spot-month contract is testing support at the $45.47 61.8% retracement point for the 2016-to-2018 uptrend, and in position to fully retrace the uptrend from the $42.05 2017 low. The forward curve is in contango market structure through November 2019. The relative strength index shows building oversold pressure.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 3.25cts near $1.7175, trading at a $1.7135 15-month low. The spot-month contract moved below support at the $1.7348 23.6% Fibonacci extension point for the January-to-February selloff. Support is again found at the $1.6859 38.2% extension point. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 2.15cts near $1.3010, trading at a $1.2985 better than two-year low. The spot-month contract has support at the $1.2185 23.6% Fibonacci extension point for the selloff from the August 2017 high to October 2017 low. January delivery is trading at a modest premium to the February contract, with the forward curve then in contango through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows building oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 9.4cts at $3.677. The spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend, trading at a $3.516 six-week low this week. Support is marked at the $3.446 61.8% retracement point for the 2018 uptrend, and again at the $3.404 100-day moving average. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation through May delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

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