DTN’s Technical Analysis | Energy | Feb 15

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
February 15, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was $0.25 lower near $64. The market’s short and intermediate trends are down, with the spot-month contract trading at a new four-week low of $61.76 this week. Initial support is marked at the $61.13 December low, and again at $60.99, the 38.2% retracement point for the June to January uptrend from $44.35 to $71.28. The forward curve is in backwardation, although the calendar spreads are narrowing. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was flat at $60.60. The market’s short and intermediate trends are down, with the spot-month contract testing support at last week’s $58.07 four-week low this week. Additional support is found at $57.26, the 38.2% retracement point for the June to January uptrend from $42.05 to $66.66. The forward curve is in backwardation, although the calendar spreads are narrowing. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure is building.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 1.25cts near $1.8725. The market’s short and intermediate trends are down, with the spot-month contract trading at a new four-week low of $1.8084 Wednesday. The spot-month contract has settled below the $1.8471 38.2% retracement point for the June to January uptrend for two consecutive sessions this week, setting up a test of support at the $1.7486 50% retracement point. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation through June delivery, although the calendar spreads are quickly narrowing. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 0.75cts near $1.72. The market’s short and intermediate trends are down, with the spot-month contract trading at a new four-week low of $1.6519 this week. The spot-month contract has nearly fully retraced the December to January uptrend, with support marked at the $1.6438 December low. Resistance is found at $1.6957, the 61.8% retracement point for the October to January uptrend from $1.5366 to $1.9530. The front end of the forward curve is in seasonal contango through May delivery. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure is building.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 2.3cts at $2.564, trading at a fresh four-week low of $2.530 overnight. The market’s short and intermediate trends are down, fully retracing the December to January uptrend from $2.568 to $3.661. Support is found at $2.521, the 61.8% retracement point for the 2016 uptrend from $1.611 to $3.994. The forward curve is in a bearish contango market structure. The relative strength index is neutral.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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Brian Milne, www.dtn.com (c) 2017 DTN. All rights reserved.