DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jul 12

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
July 12, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $0.75 to $74.25. The spot-month contract tested support at $73.34, the 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend, midweek with a $73.04 three-week low. Retracement resistance is found at $76.08 and $77.34, followed by the June high at $79.44, and the May high at $80.50. Brent is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads narrowing. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $0.50 near $70.85. The spot-month contract broke below support at $72.51, the 28.6% retracement point for the June low to the July high, testing support at $70.75 and $70.00 with a $70.02 two-week low midweek. Support is gain found near $69.50. Retracement resistance is marked at $72.51 and the recently traded multiyear high of $75.27. WTI is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads narrowing. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Distillates: The overnight market was 1.4cts higher near $2.1150. The spot-month contract broke below support at the $2.1579 retracement point for the May-to-June downtrend, and again at $2.1227 Wednesday with a $2.0944 two-week low after trading at a six-week high of $2.2332 Tuesday. Support is found at $2.0722, the 50% retracement point for the March-to-May uptrend. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 0.75cts near $2.0695. The spot-month contract broke below support at the $2.1096 and $2.0687 retracement points for the uptrend from the April low to the May high midweek with a $2.0521 two-week low. Support held at the 100-day moving average at $2.0522. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 1.1cts at $2.818. The spot month contract is in a short-term downtrend, trading at a $2.78 eight-week low midweek. The spot month contract is testing support at the $2.792 50% retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend, with additional support at $2.73. The August contract holds a premium to September delivery, while fourth quarter contracts are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index is neutral, although showing oversold pressure is building.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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