DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jul 13

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
July 13, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $0.35 near $74.05. The spot-month contract tested support at $73.34, the 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend and at the $73.00 100-day moving average Thursday with a 3-1/2 week low at $72.67. Additional support is found at the $71.13 50% retracement point for the winter-to-spring uptrend. Retracement resistance is found at $76.08 and $77.34, followed by the June high at $79.44, and the May high at $80.50. Brent is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, although the front end of the forward curve has narrowed. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was slightly lower near $70.25. The spot-month contract tested support at the $69.43 and $69.35 retracement points with a $69.23 two-week low Thursday. Retracement resistance is marked at $72.51 and the recently traded multiyear high of $75.27. WTI is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads widening. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Distillates: The overnight market was 1.0cts lower near $2.1145. The spot-month contract moved below support at the $2.1227 23.6% retracement point for the May-to-June downtrend and the $2.0905 100-day moving average Thursday with a $2.0810 nearly three-week low. Support is found at $2.0722, the 50% retracement point for the March-to-May uptrend. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was 0.5cts lower near $2.0665. The spot-month contract tested support at the 100-day moving average at $2.0554 Thursday with a $2.0438 two-week low. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was little changed near $2.799. The spot month contract is in a short-term downtrend, trading at a $2.78 eight-week low midweek. The spot month contract is testing support at the $2.792 50% retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend, with additional support at $2.73. The August contract holds a premium to September delivery, while fourth quarter contracts are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows modest oversold pressure.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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