DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jul 25

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
July 25, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was $0.25 higher near $73.75. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at the $73.60 50% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend, which coincides with the 100-day moving average at $73.65. Resistance is then marked at the $76.08 retracement point. Support is found at the recent $71.19 low and the $71.13 50% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. The spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend, with the market structure recently flipping into contango. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was slightly lower near $68.35 amid inside trade. Scattered support runs from the $67.39 100-day moving average to the recent $67.03-$67.04 double bottom. Resistance is found at the $69.43 retracement point for the June-to-July uptrend, which would fill the $0.06 gap to $69.37 on the spot continuous chart carved out with the rollover to the September contract as nearest to delivery. WTI is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads narrowing. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Distillates: The overnight market was 1.5cts higher near $2.1475, trading near a two-week high of $2.1541. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at the $2.1579 38.2% retracement point for the May-to-June downtrend. Support is found at the $2.1043 retracement point for the May-to-July downtrend, which aligns with the $2.1039 100-day moving average. The spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend, recently trading at a fourth-month low at $2.0417. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was 1.75cts higher near $2.1125, trading near a two-week high of $2.1240. The spot-month contract has moved through resistance at the $2.1096 50% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend, with resistance now found at the $2.1505 38.2% retracement point. Support is marked at the $2.0754 100-day moving average, the $2.0687 retracement point and the recent low of $1.9982. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, lending upside price support. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 1.2cts at $2.744. The spot month contract is in a short-term downtrend, recently trading at a $2.704 five-month low. Support is found at $2.705, the 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Resistance is found at $2.792. The August contract holds a modest premium to September delivery ahead of Friday’s expiration, with the market structure then in contango. The relative strength index shows an oversold market condition.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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