DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jul 27

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
July 27, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was flat near $74.50 consolidating within Thursday’s trade range in front of the September contract’s expiration Tuesday (7/31). The spot-month contract is holding below the psychologically significant $75.00 marker, with resistance at $75.22, the 38.2% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend. Initial support is found at the 100-day moving average at $73.86 followed by the recent $71.19 low and the $71.13 50% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. The spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend, with the forward curve in contango. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was flat near $69.50 amid inside trade. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at the $69.43 retracement point for the June-to-July uptrend. After the $70 psychological marker, resistance is marked at the $70.81 retracement point. Support is found at $68.05, the $67.61 100-day moving average, and the recent $67.03-$67.04 double bottom. WTI is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Distillates: The overnight market was flat near $2.1750, trading at the upper end of Thursday’s trade range ahead of the August contract’s expiration Tuesday (7/31). The spot-month contract has resistance at the $2.1864 50% retracement point for the May-to-June downtrend. Support is found at the $2.1095 100-day moving average. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was flat near $2.1625, trading at the upper end of Thursday’s trade range ahead of the August contract’s expiration Tuesday (7/31). The spot-month contract has moved through resistance at the $2.1505 38.2% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend, and is in position to test the $2.2011 retracement point. Support is found at the $2.1096 retracement point and the $2.0801 100-day moving average. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, with the August contract trading at a nearly 5.0cts premium to September delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was flat at $2.779 ahead of the August contract’s expiration at today’s close (7/27). The spot-month contract continues to test resistance at $2.792, the 50% retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend. Support is marked at the July low of $2.704. The forward curve flips into contango with the expiration of the August contract, which holds a more than 1.5cts premium to September delivery. The relative strength index shows an oversold market condition.

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