DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jul 3

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
July 3, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was $0.75 higher, trading just above $78.00. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a four-week high at $79.44 on Friday. Resistance is found at May’s high of $80.50. Brent is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads widening. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was more than $0.75 higher above $74.75, trading near a fresh multiyear high of $74.93. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, with resistance just above $75.00 and again from $76.38 through $76.53. WTI is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads widening. The relative strength index shows overbought market pressure.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 1.75cts near $2.1740. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a $2.2189 four-week high Friday. The spot-month contract has resistance at the $2.1864 and $2.2148 retracement points from the May high to the June low. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was 1.5cts higher near $2.1190. The spot-month contract has moved into a short-term uptrend, trading at a four-week high at $2.1906 Friday. The spot month contract has resistance at the $2.1505 38.2% retracement point for the uptrend from the April low to the May high, with additional resistance at the $2.2011 retracement point. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was little changed at $2.863. The spot month moved into a short-term downtrend, trading at a $2.852 four-week low on Monday. The spot month contract broke below support at $2.88 and the 200-day moving average at $2.873, now testing support at $2.853, the 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend. The August contract continues to trade at a premium to September delivery, while fourth quarter contracts are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index is neutral.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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