DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jul 30

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
July 30, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $0.50 near a two-week high, holding just below psychological resistance at $75.00 ahead of Tuesday’s expiration of the September contract. The spot-month contract has resistance at $75.22, the 38.2% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend. Initial support is found at the 100-day moving average at $73.96 followed by the recent $71.19 low and the $71.13 50% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. The spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend, with the forward curve in contango. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $1.25 near $70.00, trading at a one-week high. The spot-month contract has resistance at the $70.81 38.2% retracement point for the June-to-July uptrend. Support is found at $68.05, the $67.69 100-day moving average, and the recent $67.03-$67.04 double bottom. WTI is in a bullish backwardated market structure, with the calendar spreads widening. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 0.75cts near $2.1625 ahead of the August contract’s expiration Tuesday. The spot-month contract has resistance at the $2.1864 50% retracement point for the May-to-June downtrend. Support is found at the $2.1121 100-day moving average. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through October delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 0.75cts near $2.1700 amid inside trade, holding below Friday’s $2.1850 one-month high ahead of the August contract’s expiration Tuesday. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, cracking through resistance at the $2.1505 38.2% retracement point for the April-to-May uptrend. Resistance is now marked at the $2.2011 retracement point. Support is found at the $2.1096 retracement point and the $2.0827 100-day moving average. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, with the August contract trading at a nearly 5.0cts premium to September delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was flat at $2.782, holding within Friday’s trade range as the September contract takes over as nearest to delivery. The spot-month contract continues to test resistance at $2.792, the 50% retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend. Support is marked at the July low of $2.704. The forward curve is in a contango market structure. The relative strength index shows an oversold market condition.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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