DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jul 5

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
July 5, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was slightly higher near $78.35 amid consolidation trade. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a four-week high at $79.44 last week. Resistance is found at May’s high of $80.50. Brent is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads narrowing. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was trading near $74.55, up almost $0.50, holding below Tuesday’s $75.27 fresh multiyear high. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, with resistance just above $75.00 and again from $76.38 through $76.53. WTI is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads narrowing. The relative strength index shows overbought market pressure.

Distillates: The overnight market was up about 2.5cts near $2.1885. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a $2.2189 four-week high in closing out June. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at $2.1864, the 50% retracement point for the May high to the June low, with resistance again found at $2.2148. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through end-year delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was 1.5cts higher near $2.1325. The spot-month contract has moved into a short-term uptrend, with the now expired July contract rolling off the board near a four-week high at $2.1906 last week. The spot month contract has resistance at the $2.1505 38.2% retracement point for the uptrend from the April low to the May high, with additional resistance at the $2.2011 retracement point. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 3.2cts at $2.838. The spot month is in a short-term downtrend, trading at a $2.822 six-week low overnight. This week, the spot month contract broke below retracement support at $2.88 and $2.853, with support now found at the $2.792 50% retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend. The August contract continues to trade at a premium to September delivery, while fourth quarter contracts are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index is neutral.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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