DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jul 6

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
July 6, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was $0.50 lower near $76.85, testing support at $76.08, the 23.6% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Despite the move lower, the spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend. Resistance is found at the June high at $79.44, and the May high at $80.50. Brent is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads narrowing. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was $0.50 lower near $72.50, testing support at $72.51. The spot-month contract has additional support near $70.75 and again near $69.50. Despite the decline, the spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a multiyear high of $75.27 this week. WTI is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads narrowing. The relative strength index shows overbought market pressure.

Distillates: The overnight market was about 1.0cts lower near $2.1700. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend. The spot-month contract has support at the $2.1864 50% retracement point for the downtrend from the May high to the June low. Retracement resistance is found at $2.1864, $2.2148, and the June high of $2.2189. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was 1.5cts lower near $2.1150. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend. The spot-month contract is testing support at $2.1096, the 50% retracement point for the uptrend from the April low to the May high. Resistance is found at the $2.1505 retracement point, and June’s high at $2.1906. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.

Natural Gas: The overnight market softened to $2.836, trading near this week’s $2.822 six-week low. The spot month is in a short-term downtrend. The spot month contract broke below retracement support at $2.853, with support now found at the $2.792 50% retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend. The August contract continues to trade at a premium to September delivery, while fourth quarter contracts are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index is neutral.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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