DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jun 18

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
June 18, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $0.50 near $74.00, reversing higher off a new four-week low. While higher, the spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend. The spot-month contract broke below support at $73.34—the 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Additional support is marked at $71.13. Brent remains backwardated, a bullish market structure. The relative strength index is neutral, but shows oversold pressure is building.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was $0.25 lower near $64.75, paring a decline to a four-week low at $63.59. The spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend. The spot-month WTI contract is testing support at $63.71—the 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Additional retracement support is found at $62.32 derived from the December-to-May uptrend. WTI’s market structure remains bullish, with the forward curve backwardated. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 1.5cts near $2.1025, reversing off a new four-week low. Despite the overnight reversal, the spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend after trading at a four-week low of $2.0658. The spot-month contract moved through support at $2.1165, and tested support at $2.0577–the 50% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Support is then found at the $1.9988 retracement point. The forward curve is in contango which aligns with the contract’s seasonal characteristics. The relative strength index is neutral, although an oversold condition is building.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 0.75cts near $2.0310. The spot-month contract traded at a $2.0055 four-week low overnight, confirming the market’s short-term downtrend. The spot-month contract has support at the $2.0038 100-day moving average, and at the $1.9961 50% retracement point for the February to May uptrend. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, a supportive market structure. The relative strength index shows an oversold market condition is building.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was slightly higher, up 0.2cts at $3.025. The spot-month contract traded at a $3.053 new four-week high overnight confirming the market’s short-term uptrend. Resistance is marked at $3.095, the 50% retracement point for the January-to-February downtrend from $3.661 to $2.53. The front end of the forward curve is in modest backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index is neutral.

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