DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jun 19

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
June 19, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $0.50 near $74.75. The spot-month contract traded at a four-week low of $74.25 Monday, confirming its short-term downtrend. The spot-month contract tested key support at $73.34—the 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend, for the second straight session Monday, with additional support marked at $71.13. Resistance is found at $76.08, the 23.6% retracement point for the winter-to-spring uptrend. Brent is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads widening. The relative strength index is neutral.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was $1.00 lower near $64.75. The spot-month contract traded at a four-week low of $63.59 on Monday, confirming the move to a short-term downtrend. The spot-month WTI contract is testing support at $64.33, the 50% retracement point for the uptrend from December’s low to May’s high. Key support is found at $63.71—the 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. WTI is in backwardation, a bullish market structure. The relative strength index shows modest oversold market pressure.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 1.25cts near $2.1175. The spot-month contract traded at a four-week low of $2.0658 Monday, moving the market into a short-term downtrend. The spot-month contract tested support at the $2.0605 100-day moving average, with support then found at $2.0577—the 50% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through February delivery. The relative strength index is neutral, although an oversold condition is building.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 2.75cts near $2.0275. The spot-month contract traded at a $2.0055 four-week low on Monday, confirming the market’s short-term downtrend. The spot-month contract has support at the $2.0052 100-day moving average, and at the $1.9961 50% retracement point for the February to May uptrend. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index shows an oversold market condition is building.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 1.7cts at $2.934, reversing off a $3.053 four-week high Monday. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend. After Monday’s high, resistance is marked at $3.095, the 50% retracement point for the January-to-February downtrend from $3.661 to $2.53. The front end of the forward curve remains in modest backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index is neutral.

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