DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Jun 22

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
June 22, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was $1.25 higher near $74.25, consolidating within Thursday’s trade range. The spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend. The spot-month contract moved off support at $73.34, the 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend, with additional support at the four-week low of $72.45. Resistance is marked the $76.08 retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Brent is in backwardation, a bullish market structure, with the calendar spreads mixed. The relative strength index shows an oversold market condition eased modestly.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $1.00 near $66.55, and a one-week high. Despite the upside, the spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend, testing resistance at the $66.33 retracement point, with resistance again marked at $67.19. Support is marked at $64.33, the 50% retracement point for the uptrend from December’s low to May’s high. Key support is found at $63.71—the 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend, and this week’s four-week low of $63.59. WTI is in backwardation, a bullish market structure. The relative strength index shows an oversold market condition has eased modestly.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 3.5cts near $2.1050 amid inside trade. The spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend despite the overnight advance. Resistance is found at the $2.1165 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. The spot-month contract has support at this week’s $2.0658 four-week low, with additional support marked at the $2.0577 50% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. The forward curve is in seasonal contango through early 2019 delivery. The relative strength index shows an oversold market condition has eased modestly.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was 2.5cts higher near $2.0125. The spot-month contract is in a short-term downtrend, trading at a $1.9975 10-week low on Thursday. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at $2.0409, the 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Support is marked at the $2.0084 100-day moving average, and again at the $1.9961 50% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. The gasoline market is in seasonal backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index shows an oversold market condition.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 1.8cts at $2.957, consolidating within Thursday’s trade range. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend after trading at a $3.053 four-week high this week. Support is marked at the $2.88 retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. The front end of the forward curve remains in modest backwardation, a price supportive market structure. The relative strength index is neutral.

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