DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Nov 12

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
November 12, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $1.15 near $71.30. The spot-month contract is again trading above support at the $70.55 38.2% retracement point for the long-term uptrend from the June 2017 low to the October high after moving below the support point Friday, trading at a $69.13 seven-month low. Additional support is found at the $65.54 50% retracement point. The forward curve shows a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $0.65 near $60.85. The spot-month contract tested support at the $59.48 50% retracement point for the uptrend from the June 2017 low to October high, trading at a $59.26 nine-month low on Friday. Support is again found at the current 2018 low at $58.07 traded in February, and again at the $55.36 61.8% for the 2017 to 2018 uptrend. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through July 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 1.0cts near $2.1825. The spot-month contract is again above the 200-day moving average $2.1366 after slipping below the mark and testing support at the $2.1292 50% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend Friday, trading at a $2.1192 2-1/2 month low. Support is again found at the $2.0535 61.8% retracement point for the same trend. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure is building.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 2.65cts near $1.6480. The spot-month contract is consolidating above the $1.5915 50% retracement point for the long-term uptrend from the 2016 low to the 2018 high after trading at a $1.5984 13-month low on Friday. Support is again marked at the $1.4277 61.8% retracement point for the same uptrend. The forward curve moves into contango in 2019 through May delivery. The relative strength index shows ongoing oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market surged 17.3cts at $3.892, trading at a $3.907 23-month high. The spot-month contract has an upside target of $4.002, the 38.2% Fibonacci extension point for the uptrend from the December 2017 low to the 2018 high. A downside reversal would target closing the gap on the spot continuous chart to $3.437. The forward curve is transitioning into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows overbought pressure.

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