DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Nov 13

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
November 13, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $1.25 near $68.90. The spot-month contract decisively broke below retracement support at $70.55, settling at $70.12 on Monday, and trading at a new seven-month intraday low at $68.15 overnight. Support is found at $65.54, the 50% retracement point for the long-term uptrend from the June 2017 low to the October high. The forward curve shows a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down $1.25 near $58.75. The spot-month contract moved below support at the $59.48 50% retracement point for the uptrend from the June 2017 low to October high, trading at a $58.24 nine-month low overnight. Support is found at the 2018 low at $58.07, and again at the $55.36 61.8% for the 2017 to 2018 uptrend. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 1.85cts near $2.1370. The spot-month contract moved below the $2.1368 200-day moving average and support at the $2.1292 50% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend, trading at a $2.1182 12-week low overnight. Support is marked at the $2.0535 61.8% retracement point for the same trend. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure is building.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 3.15cts near $1.6050. The spot-month contract is testing long-term support at the $1.5915 50% retracement point for the uptrend from the 2016 low to the 2018 high, trading at $1.5915—a 13-month low. Support is again marked at the $1.4277 61.8% retracement point for the same uptrend. The forward curve moves into contango in 2019 through May delivery. The relative strength index shows ongoing oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: Natural gas continued to rally overnight, up 26.1cts at $4.049, and spiking to a $4.067 four-year high. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at $4.052, the 50% retracement point on the weekly chart for the downtrend from the 2014 high to the 2016 low. Resistance is again found at the 61.8% retracement point at $4.628. The forward curve is transitioning into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows overbought pressure.

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