DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Nov 15

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
November 15, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $0.50 near $66.60, continuing to consolidate above this week’s $64.61 eight-month low. The spot-month contract has support at $65.54, the 50% retracement point for the long-term uptrend from the June 2017 low to the October high, with support again found at the $60.54 61.8% retracement point. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was slightly higher near $56.35, consolidating above this week’s $54.75 one-year low. The spot-month contract has support at $55.36, the 61.8% retracement point for the uptrend from the June 2017 low to October high. Support is again found at the $50.88 extension point for the February to October uptrend. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 0.5cts near $2.0915, consolidating above this week’s $2.0503 four-month low. The spot-month contract has support at the $2.0535 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure continues to build.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 0.25cts near $1.5620, consolidating above this week’s $1.5240 16-month low. The spot-month contract has long-term support at the $1.4277 61.8% retracement point for the uptrend from the 2016 low to the 2018 high. The forward curve moves into contango in 2019 through May delivery. The relative strength index shows ongoing oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 32.7cts at $4.510, pulling back from a nearly 52-month high of $4.929. The spot-month contract has resistance at the $4.628 61.8% retracement point on the weekly chart for the downtrend from the 2014 high to the 2016 low. Another move above the resistance point would target the $5.095 Fibonacci extension point for the December 2017 to January uptrend. The forward curve is transitioning into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

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