DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Nov 19

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
November 19, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was flat near $67.70. The spot-month contract is consolidating above support at $65.54, the 50% retracement point for the long-term uptrend from the June 2017 low to the October high. After last week’s $64.61 eight-month low, support is found at the $60.54 61.8% retracement point for the uptrend. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was flat near $55.50 ahead of the December contract’s expiration this afternoon. The spot-month contract is consolidating above support at $55.36, the 61.8% retracement point for the uptrend from the June 2017 low to October high. After last week’s $54.75 one-year low, support is found at the $50.88 extension point for the February to October uptrend. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through the early fourth quarter 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 0.85cts near $2.0820. The spot-month contract is consolidating above support at the $2.0535 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend after trading at a $2.0503 four-month low last week. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows building oversold pressure.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 1.0cts near $1.5865. The spot-month contract is consolidating above support at the $1.5340 50% retracement point for the uptrend from the 2016 low to the 2017 high. After last week’s $1.5240 16-month low, long-term support is found at the $1.4277 61.8% retracement point for the uptrend from the 2016 low to the 2018 high. The forward curve moves into contango in 2019 through June delivery. The relative strength index shows ongoing oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 22.8cts at $4.50. The spot-month contract gapped 5.6cts higher although is trading within last week’s wide trade range to a $4.929 nearly 52-month high. Resistance is found at the $4.628 61.8% retracement point on the weekly chart for the downtrend from the 2014 high to the 2016 low, with support at the $3.835 50% retracement point for the uptrend from the August low to last week’s high. The forward curve is transitioning into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

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