DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Nov 21

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
November 21, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $1.15 near $63.65, consolidating at the bottom end of Tuesday’s wide trade range. The spot-month contract moved through the $61.76-$61.77 double bottom reached in February on Tuesday, trading at a $61.71 nearly one-year low. Support is marked at $60.54, the 61.8% retracement point for the long-term uptrend from the June 2017 low to the October high. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through July 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $1.05 near $54.50, consolidating at the low end of Tuesday’s wide trade range. The spot-month contract broke below support at $55.36, the 61.8% retracement point for the uptrend from the June 2017 low to October high, trading at a $52.77 11-month low. Support is now found at $51.48, the 50% retracement point for the uptrend from the 2016 low to the October high. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 1.75cts near $2.0075, consolidating at the low end of Tuesday’s wide trade range. The spot-month contract decisively broke below support at the $2.0535 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend, and the 38.2% retracement point for the uptrend from the 2017 low to 2018 high at $2.0313 on Tuesday, trading at a $1.9731 7-1/2 month low. Support is now found at $1.9020, the 50% retracement point for the 2017 to 2018 uptrend. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 1.8cts near $1.5140, consolidating above Tuesday’s $1.4780 16-month low. The spot-month contract has long-term support at the $1.4277 61.8% retracement point for the uptrend from the 2016 low to the 2018 high. The forward curve moves into contango in 2019 through June delivery. The relative strength index shows ongoing oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 7.6cts at $4.599. The spot-month contract is testing the $4.929 nearly 52-month high traded last week, trading at a $4.864 high overnight. The forward curve is transitioning into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

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