DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Nov 26

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
November 26, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $1.25 near $60.00. The spot-month contract plunged through support at the 61.8% $60.54 retracement point for the 2017-to-2018 uptrend, trading at a $58.41 13-month low over the holiday. That sets support at $56.92, the 50% retracement point for the uptrend from the 2016 low to the 2018 high. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through August 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $0.75 near $51.15. The spot-month contract broke below support at $51.48, the 50% retracement point for the 2016-to-2018 uptrend, trading at a $50.10 13-month low. Support is now marked at the $45.47 61.8% retracement point for the same long-term uptrend. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through third quarter 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 1.9cts near $1.8950. The spot-month contract broke below support at the $1.9020 50% retracement point for the 2017-to-2018 uptrend, trading at a $1.8722 eight-month low. The contract tested support at $1.8857, 138.2% retracement point for the July-to-October uptrend. Support is found at the $1.8084 2018 low, and again at the $1.7727 61.8% retracement point for the 2017—to-2018 uptrend. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 2.25cts near $1.4140. The spot-month contract moved through support at the $1.4277 61.8% retracement point for the 2016-to-2018 uptrend, trading at the $1.3838 61.8% retracement point for the 2016-to-2017 uptrend—a two-year low. The forward curve moves into contango in 2019 through June delivery. The relative strength index shows ongoing oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 25.6cts at $4.052, fully retracing the spike high mid-month to a $4.929 nearly 52-month high, trading at a $3.99 low overnight. The spot-month contract is trading below support at $4.093, the 38.2% retracement point for the September-to-November uptrend, with support again found at the $3.835 50% retracement point. The forward curve is transitioning into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows easing overbought pressure.

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