DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Nov 5

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
November 5, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was flat near $72.85. The spot-month contract is testing support at the $71.30 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend, trading at $72.26 overnight and $72.16 Friday. Support is again found at the $70.30 August low. The forward curve is largely flat through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down $0.25 near $62.90. The spot-month contract traded at a fresh seven-month low overnight at $62.52. Support is found at the $61.81 April low, and again at the $58.07 low for February. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 0.5cts near $2.1775, trading at a $2.1563 nearly 2-1/2 month low. The spot-month contract settled below support at the $2.1977 61.8% retracement point for the July-to-October uptrend on Friday at $2.1728. Support is again found at $2.1292, the 50% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure is building.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 1.0cts near $1.6985. The spot-month contract is holding above last week’s $1.6889 8-1/2 month low, trading at a $1.6896 low overnight. The spot-month contract is in position to fully retrace the seasonal uptrend from the February low of $1.6519. The forward curve is moving into contango. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 20.6cts at $3.490, gapping 12.4cts higher with a $3.437 low. The spot-month contract rallied through resistance at the $3.368 October high, trading at $3.511 nine-month high overnight. Long-term resistance is marked on the weekly chart at the $3.476 38.2% retracement point for the downtrend from the 2014 high to the 2016 low. The December contract is trading at a discount to January delivery, with the forward curve then moving into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

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