DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Nov 6

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
November 6, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $0.40 near $72.75. The spot-month contract continues to trade below the 200-day moving average at $74.01, with support at the $71.30 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend. Support is again found at the $70.30 August low. The forward curve is largely flat through July 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down $0.25 near $62.90. The spot-month contract continues to trade below the 200-day moving average at $67.46, settling at a fresh seven-month low at $63.10 on Monday. Support is found at the $61.81 April low, and again at the $58.07 low for February. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 0.5cts near $2.2015. The spot-month contract is trending down, trading at a $2.1563 nearly 2-1/2 month low on Monday. Support is found at the $2.1351 200-day moving average and at the $2.1292 50% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure is building.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was flat near $1.6915. The spot-month contract traded at a $1.6750 8-1/2 month low overnight. The spot-month contract is in position to fully retrace the seasonal uptrend from the February low of $1.6519. The forward curve is moving into contango. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 3.8cts at $3.529 amid inside trade following Monday’s spike to a $3.576 nine-month high. The spot-month contract moved through long-term resistance on the weekly chart at the $3.476 38.2% retracement point for the downtrend from the 2014 high to the 2016 low. Resistance is found at the $3.661 2018 high. Traders will look to fill the 12.4cts gap on the spot continuous chart down to $3.437. The December contract is trading at a discount to January delivery, with the forward curve then moving into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

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