DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Nov 9

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
November 9, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $1.00 near $69.65, trading at a $69.13 seven-month low. The spot-month contract moved below support at the $70.55 38.2% retracement point for the long-term uptrend from the June 2017 low to the October high. Support is found at the $65.54 50% retracement point for the same trend. The forward curve shows a contango market structure through the first half of 2019. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down $1.00 near $59.75, trading at a $59.28 nine-month low. The spot-month contract is testing support at the $59.48 50% retracement point for the uptrend from the June 2017 low to October high. Support is again found at the current 2018 low at $58.07 traded in February, and again at the $55.36 61.8% for the 2017 to 2018 uptrend. The forward curve is in a contango market structure through 2019 delivery. The relative strength index shows an oversold market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 2.85cts near $2.1400, trading at a $2.1277 2-1/2 month low. The spot-month contract moved below the $2.1360 200-day moving average, and is testing support at the $2.1292 50% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend. Support is again found at the $2.0535 61.8% retracement point for the same trend. The forward curve is in seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure is building.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 3.1cts near $1.6135, trading at a $1.6069 13-month low. The spot-month contract has support is at the $1.5915 50% retracement point for the long-term uptrend from the 2016 low to the 2018 high. Support is again marked at the $1.4277 61.8% retracement point for the same uptrend. The forward curve moves into contango in 2019 through May delivery. The relative strength index shows ongoing oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 6.7cts at $3.610, trading at a $3.640 better-than nine-month high. Resistance is found at the $3.661 2018 high. A move through the high sets the upside target at $3.842, the 23.6% Fibonacci extension point for the uptrend from the December 2017 low to the 2018 high. A downside reversal would target closing the gap on the spot continuous chart to $3.437. The December contract is trading at a discount to January delivery, with the forward curve then moving into seasonal backwardation. The relative strength index shows overbought pressure is building. *For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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