DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Oct 1

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
October 1, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $0.25 near $83, trading at a nearly four-year high as the December contract assumes the front month position. The now expired November contract settled above retracement resistance at $81.86 Friday. Long-term resistance is marked at the $88.77 61.8% retracement point for the June 2014 high-to-January 2015 low. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up slightly near $73.45, trading at a fresh 12-week high at $73.65. The spot-month contract settled above retracement resistance at $72.51 on Friday. Resistance is again found at the $75.27 July high. Support is found at the $69.17 100-day moving average, and September’s $68.53 double bottom. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows overbought pressure continues to build.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 0.75cts near $2.3555, trading at a nearly four-year high at $2.3646 as the November contract moves into the front month position. Resistance is found at the $2.3965 high from November 2014. The front end of the forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 0.5cts near $2.0905. The October contract closed the seasonal gap on the spot continuation chart with a $2.1180 four-week high Friday before expiring at the close. The spot-month contract is testing support at the $2.0875 100-day moving average. Support is again marked at the $2.0633 and $2.0248 retracement points for the May-to-September downtrend. The backwardation at the front end of the forward curve continues to narrow, with November delivery holding a 1.0cts premium to the December contract and December near flat with January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 5.1cts at $3.059. The spot-month contract continues to hold below last week’s $3.111 eight-month high and the $3.095 50% retracement point for the down move from the 2018 high to 2018 low. Support is marked at the $2.962 38.2% retracement point for the same trend. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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