DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Oct 10

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
October 10, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was flat at $85 amid inside trade. The spot-month contract continues to trade on either side of the $84.73 23.6% Fibonacci extension point. Resistance is found at this month’s $86.74 four-year high and the $87.47 38.2% extension point. Support is found at $81.86 and $80.50. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows ongoing overbought pressure.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was flat near $75, consolidating within Tuesday’s trade range. The spot-month contract continues to trade on either side of the $74.88 50% retracement point for the downtrend from the 2014 high to the 2015 low. After this month’s $76.90 four-year high, resistance is marked at the $79.09 23.6% Fibonacci extension point. Support is found at the $69.45 100-day moving average. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows easing overbought market pressure.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 0.25cts near $2.4260, holding within Tuesday’s trade range. The spot-month contract continues to trade on either side of the $2.4206 23.6% Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-May uptrend, with resistance found at this month’s $2.45 four-year high. Support is found at $2.3069. The November contract is trading at a 20 points discount to December delivery, and the December contract is near flat with January delivery. The January contract holds a modest 40 points premium to February delivery. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up slightly near $2.0785. The spot-month contract has resistance at the $2.1058 50% retracement point for the May-to-September downtrend. Support is found at the $2.0248 and $2.0100 Fibonacci retracement points, and the 200-day moving average at $2.0108. The seasonal backwardation in the gasoline contract is nearly unwound, with the November contract at a 20 points premium to December delivery, and the December and January contracts at near parity. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 6.1cts at $3.327. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a more than eight-month high at $3.368 on Tuesday. Resistance is marked at the $3.38 61.8% extension point for the February-to-June uptrend, and again at the $3.403 23.6% retracement point for the December-to-January uptrend. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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