DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Oct 11

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
October 11, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $1.50 near $81.50, and traded at an $81.14 two-week low. The spot-month contract is testing support at $81.86 and $80.50. Resistance is found at the $84.73 23.6% Fibonacci extension point and this month’s $86.74 four-year high. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows overbought pressure has eased.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down $1.25 near $71.95, and traded at a $71.63 two-week low. The spot-month contract has support at the $69.42 100-day moving average. Resistance is marked at the $74.88 50% retracement point for the downtrend from the 2014 high to the 2015 low, and this month’s $76.90 four-year high. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 3.25cts near $2.3615. The spot-month contract has support at $2.3069, with resistance at the $2.4206 23.6% Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-May uptrend, and at this month’s $2.45 four-year high. The November contract is trading at a 15 points discount to December delivery, and the December contract is at a 15 points premium to January delivery. The January contract holds a modest 35 points premium to February delivery. The relative strength index shows easing overbought pressure.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 4.25cts near $1.9775, and traded at a $1.97 three-week low. The spot-month contract broke below support at the $2.0248 and $2.0100 Fibonacci retracement points, and the 200-day moving average at $2.0114, in position to test the $1.9260 September low. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 3.6cts at $3.248. The spot-month contract remains in a short-term uptrend, trading at a more than eight-month high at $3.368 this week. Resistance is marked at the $3.38 61.8% extension point for the February-to-June uptrend, and again at the $3.403 23.6% retracement point for the December-to-January uptrend. Support is found at the $3.229 retracement point. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows modest overbought pressure.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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