DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Oct 18

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
October 18, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $1 near $79.00. The spot-month contract has support at the $78.52 50% retracement point for the August-to-October uptrend, and again at the $77.20 38.2% retracement point for the February-to-October uptrend. Resistance is found at the $82.86 23.6% retracement point for the August-to-October uptrend. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down $0.65 near $69.00. The spot-month contract moved into a short-term downtrend, settling at a $69.75 four-week low Wednesday. The spot-month contract moved below support at the $69.46 100-day moving average, and is testing support at $69.19, the 61.8% retracement point for the August-to-October uptrend. Support is then found at the $67.29 20-day moving average. Retracement resistance is marked at $70.67 and $72.14. The forward curve through the first half of 2019 is flat, with WTI futures moving out of a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was 1.85cts lower near $2.2925. The spot-month contract is testing support at the $2.2940 38.2% retracement point for the July-to-October uptrend. A break below the support point sets up a test of support at the $2.2458 50% retracement point. Resistance is marked at the $2.3536 retracement point. The seasonal contango at the front end of the forward curve remains tight. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 2.65cts near $1.8925. The spot-month contract is testing support at $1.8939, the 61.8% retracement point for the February-to-May uptrend. Resistance is marked at the $1.9687 50% retracement point for the same trend. The front end of the forward curve is flat. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 3.4cts at $3.286. Support is marked at the $3.229 retracement point for the January-to-February downtrend. Despite the downturn, the spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend. Resistance is found at the $3.368 October high and at the $3.38 61.8% extension point for the February-to-June uptrend. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows easing overbought pressure.

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