DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Oct 2

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
October 2, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $0.25 near $84.65, holding below Monday’s $85.45 four-year high. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at $84.73, the 23.6% Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-May uptrend, with resistance again found at the $87.47 extension point. Long-term resistance is marked at the $88.77 61.8% retracement point for the June 2014 high-to-January 2015 low. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was flat near $75.35, easing off a nearly four-year high at $75.91. The spot-month contract settled above resistance at the $75.27 July high Monday, with resistance now found at the $79.09 Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-July uptrend. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 1.0cts near $2.3985, holding below Monday’s $2.4176 nearly four-year high. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at the $2.4206 Fibonacci point for the February-to-May uptrend. The front end of the forward curve is in seasonal contango through February delivery. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 0.55cts to $2.1220 after trading at a fresh four-week high of $2.1373. The spot-month contract has resistance at the $2.1482 retracement point for the May-to-September downtrend, with support found at the $2.0873 100-day moving average. The backwardation in the front end of the forward curve continues to narrow, with November delivery holding a 0.75cts premium to the December contract and December near flat with January delivery. The relative strength index shows overbought pressure is building.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 4.8cts at $3.142, trading near a $3.144 eight-month high. The spot-month contract has resistance at the $3.229 61.8% Fibonacci retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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