DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Oct 3

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
October 3, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE eased to $84.65 amid inside trade. The spot-month contract is again testing resistance at $84.73, the 23.6% Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-May uptrend, with resistance again found at the $87.47 extension point. Long-term resistance is marked at the $88.77 61.8% retracement point for the June 2014 high-to-January 2015 low. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market softened in consolidation trade, trading near $75.15. The spot-month contract traded at a $75.77 nearly four-year high this week. Resistance is found at the $79.09 Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-July uptrend. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down slightly near $2.4060 after trading at a fresh nearly four-year high at $2.4224. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at the $2.4206 Fibonacci point for the February-to-May uptrend. Resistance is again found at the $2.4934 38.2% extension point for the uptrend. The front end of the forward curve is in seasonal contango through February delivery. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 0.75cts to $2.1195, holding within Wednesday’s trade range. The spot-month contract has resistance at the $2.1482 retracement point for the May-to-September downtrend, with support found at the $2.0866 100-day moving average. The backwardation in the front end of the forward curve continues to unwind, with November delivery holding a 0.65cts premium to the December contract and December flat with January delivery. The relative strength index shows overbought pressure is building.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 1.1cts at $3.177, holding below Tuesday’s $3.184 eight-month high. The spot-month contract has resistance at the $3.229 61.8% Fibonacci retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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