DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Oct 4

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
October 4, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $0.25 to just over $86, consolidating within Wednesday’s trade range. The spot-month contract moved through resistance at the $84.73 23.6% Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-May uptrend, trading at an $86.74 four-year high. Initial resistance is found at the $87.47 extension point, and long-term resistance is marked at the $88.77 61.8% retracement point for the June 2014 high-to-January 2015 low. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down slightly near $76.25 amid inside trade. The spot-month contract traded at a $76.90 nearly four-year high Wednesday. Resistance is found at the $79.09 Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-July uptrend. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 0.5cts near $2.4320, consolidating within Wednesday’s trade range. The spot-month contract moved above resistance at the $2.4206 Fibonacci point for the February-to-May uptrend, trading at a nearly four-year high at $2.45. Resistance is now found at the $2.4934 38.2% extension point for the uptrend. The November contract is trading at a 45 points discount to December delivery, with the December contract at a 30 points premium to the January contract. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 1.5cts near $2.1230, holding within Wednesday’s trade range. The spot-month contract tested resistance at the $2.1482 retracement point for the May-to-September downtrend, trading at a $2.15 better-than four-week high Wednesday. Resistance is again found at the $2.1850 July high. Support is found at the $2.0860 100-day moving average. The backwardation in the November-to-December spread has narrowed to about 20 points, with December trading at a 25 points discount to January. The relative strength index shows overbought pressure continues to build.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was unchanged at $3.230 amid inside trade. The spot-month contract traded at a $3.261 eight-month high Wednesday, testing resistance at the $3.229 61.8% Fibonacci retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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