DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Oct 5

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
October 5, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down about $0.25 to $84.35, consolidating within this week’s trade range. The spot-month contract has pulled back after testing resistance at the $87.47 38.2% Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-May uptrend, trading at an $86.74 four-year high this week. Long-term resistance is marked at the $88.77 61.8% retracement point for the June 2014 high-to-January 2015 low. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $0.25 near $74.55, consolidating within this week’s trade range. The spot-month contract traded at a $76.90 nearly four-year high this week, with resistance found at the $79.09 Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-July uptrend. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 0.25cts near $2.3980, consolidating within this week’s trade range. The spot-month contract traded at a nearly four-year high at $2.45 this week, with resistance found at the $2.4934 38.2% extension point for the February-to-May uptrend. The November contract is trading at a 15 points discount to December delivery, with the December contract at a 60 points discount to the January contract. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 0.4cts near $2.0965, consolidating within this week’s trade range. The spot-month contract traded at a $2.15 better-than four-week high this week, testing resistance at the $2.1482 retracement point for the May-to-September downtrend. Resistance is again found at the $2.1850 July high. Support is found at the $2.0847 100-day moving average. The backwardation in the November-to-December spread has widened to about 50 points, with December and January contracts at parity. The relative strength index shows modest overbought pressure.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 1.4cts at $3.179 amid inside trade. The spot-month contract has pulled back from a $3.261 eight-month high traded Wednesday, with resistance at the $3.229 61.8% Fibonacci retracement point for the February-to-June uptrend. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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