DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Oct 9

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
October 9, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $0.95 to near $84.85. The spot-month contract is trading on either side of the $84.73 23.6% Fibonacci extension point, with resistance after this month’s $86.74 four-year high found at the $87.47 38.2% extension point. Support is found at $81.86 and $80.50. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows ongoing overbought pressure.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market up $0.65 to near $73.95. The spot-month contract is trading on either side of the $74.88 50% retracement point for the downtrend from the 2014 high to the 2015 low. After this month’s $76.90 four-year high, resistance is marked at the $79.09 23.6% Fibonacci extension point. Support is found at the $69.41 100-day moving average. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows overbought market pressure persists.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 2.0cts near $2.4135. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at the $2.4206 23.6% Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-May uptrend, with resistance then found at this month’s $2.45 four-year high. Support is found at $2.3069. The contango in the front end of the forward curve is unwinding, with November and December delivery trading at parity, and the December contract at a 25 points discount to the January contract. January and February delivery are at near parity. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 0.35cts near $2.0975. The spot-month contract is again above the 100-day moving average at $2.0816, with resistance at the $2.1058 50% retracement point for the May-to-September downtrend. Support is found at the $2.0248 and $2.0100 Fibonacci retracement points, and the 200-day moving average at $2.0093. The seasonal backwardation in the gasoline contract continues to unwind, with the November contract at a 60 points premium to December delivery, and the December and January contracts at near parity. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was up 8.8cts at $3.355, trading near a fresh more than eight-month high at $3.368. The spot-month contract continues in a short-term uptrend, moving through resistance at the $3.318 50% Fibonacci extension point for the February-to-June uptrend. Resistance is marked at the $3.38 61.8% extension point, and again at the $3.403 23.6% retracement point for the December-to-January uptrend. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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