DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Sep 26

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
September 26, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was down $0.45 near $81.75, consolidating below Tuesday’s $82.55 nearly four-year high. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at the $81.86 61.8% retracement point for the downtrend from the June 2014 high-to-January 2016 low. Resistance is again marked at the $88.77 61.8% retracement point for the June 2014 high-to-January 2015 low. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows modest overbought pressure is building.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was down $0.25 near $72.05. The spot-month contract again tested retracement resistance at $72.51, trading at a nearly 11-week high at $72.78 on Tuesday. Resistance is again found at the $75.27 July high. Support is found at the $69.09 100-day moving average, and last week’s $68.53 double bottom. The market is in a short-term uptrend, and the forward curve in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was down 1.0cts near $2.2945, consolidating within Tuesday’s trade range. The spot-month contract traded at a $2.3159 3-1/2 year high on Tuesday. Resistance is found at the $2.3514 high from February 2015. The front end of the forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was down 1.5cts near $2.0535. The spot-month contract continues to test resistance at the $2.0633 38.2% retracement point for the May-to-September downtrend. RBOB could target $2.1076 to close the seasonal gap on the spot continuation chart. Support is found at the $1.9908 200-day moving average. The gasoline market is in a flattening backwardated market structure through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 2.2cts at $3.060. The spot-month contract traded at a $3.087 eight-month high Tuesday. October delivery has widened its premium to November delivery ahead of the October contract’s expiration this afternoon. The calendar spreads are in seasonal contango from November through January delivery. The relative strength index shows modest overbought pressure is building.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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