DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Sep 27

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
September 27, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $0.45 near $81.75. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at an $82.55 nearly four-year high this week. The spot-month contract continues to test resistance at the $81.86 61.8% retracement point for the downtrend from the June 2014 high-to-January 2016 low. Resistance is again marked at the $88.77 61.8% retracement point for the June 2014 high-to-January 2015 low. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows modest overbought pressure.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was up $0.75 near $72.25. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a nearly 11-week high at $72.78 on Tuesday. The spot-month contract is again testing retracement resistance at $72.51. Resistance is again found at the $75.27 July high. Support is found at the $69.11 100-day moving average, and last week’s $68.53 double bottom. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 1.5cts near $2.3150. The spot-month contract traded at a $2.3296 3-1/2 year high overnight ahead of the October contract’s expiration on Friday. Resistance is found at the $2.3514 high from February 2015. The front end of the forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 1.25cts near $2.0725. The spot-month contract moved through resistance at the $2.0633 38.2% retracement point for the May-to-September downtrend, trading at a $2.0859 nearly four-week high overnight. The October contract is in position to close the seasonal gap on the spot continuation chart before its expiration Friday, with the low end of the gap at $2.1076. Support is found at the $1.9925 200-day moving average. The gasoline market is in a flattening backwardated market structure through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 0.9cts at $2.971, as November delivery moves into the front month position. The now expired October contract traded at a $3.088 eight-month high before rolling off the board, suggesting short covering into the expiration. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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