DTN’s Technical Analysis | ENERGY | Sep 28

Daily technical analysis of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas

Brian Milne - DTN Energy Editor,
September 28, 2018

Brent Crude Oil: The overnight market on ICE was up $0.50 near $82.25, consolidating within Thursday’s trade range ahead of the November contract’s expiration this afternoon. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at an $82.55 nearly four-year high this week. The spot-month contract continues to trade on either side of retracement resistance at $81.86. A decisive move through the resistance mark targets the $88.77 61.8% retracement point for the June 2014 high-to-January 2015 low. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

Crude Oil: The overnight WTI market was flat near $72.10 amid inside trade. The spot-month contract is in a short-term uptrend, trading at a nearly 11-week high at $72.78 this week. The spot-month contract is holding below retracement resistance at $72.51. Resistance is again found at the $75.27 July high. Support is found at the $69.13 100-day moving average, and the $68.53 double bottom. The forward curve is in a bullish backwardated market structure. The relative strength index shows modest overbought pressure is building.

Distillates: The overnight market was up 0.5cts near $2.3290, holding below a fresh better-than 3-1/2 year high of $2.3296 traded Thursday ahead of the October contract’s expiration at the close. Resistance is found at the $2.3514 high from February 2015. The front end of the forward curve is in seasonal contango through January delivery. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

RBOB Gasoline: The overnight market was up 0.25cts near $2.0840 after trading at a fresh nearly four-week high at $2.0871 ahead of the October contract’s expiration this afternoon. The 100-day moving average is at $2.0881, with the October contract in position to close the seasonal gap on the spot continuation chart before its expiration at the close, with the low end of the gap at $2.1076. Support is found at the $1.9945 200-day moving average. The gasoline market is in a flattening backwardated market structure through January delivery. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.

Natural Gas: The overnight market was down 2.4cts at $3.032, reversing off Thursday’s eight-month high of $3.111. The spot-month contract is again below resistance marked at the $3.095 50% retracement point for the down move from the 2018 high to 2018 low. Support is marked at the $2.962 38.2% retracement point for the same trend. The November through January calendar spreads are in seasonal contango. The relative strength index shows an overbought market.

*For technical analysis of monthly (long-term) and weekly (intermediate-term) trends see DTN’s Technically Speaking blog on your ProphetX system.

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