Technically Speaking: Corn | Soybeans | Wheat
April 29, 2018
Cash: The DTN National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price) closed at $3.60, up 15 cents for the week. The NCI took out its previous double-top near $3.54, also erasing a potential head-and-shoulders pattern on its weekly close-only chart. Despite weekly stochastics already well above the overbought level of 80% the NCI has extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. Next major (long-term) resistance is up near $4.00 on the monthly chart.
Old-crop Futures: The July 2018 contract closed 13.00 cents higher at $3.98 1/2. Despite the solid rally last week it could be argued that July corn remains in secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. However, this could be erased with a move beyond the previous high of $4.02 3/4.
New-crop Futures: The December 2018 contract closed 12 cents higher at $4.14 1/2. Similar to old-crop July corn it could be argued that new-crop December remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. If so, this past week’s rally to a high of $4.14 3/4 could be considered Wave B (second wave) of the pattern. However, an extended rally beyond the previous high of $4.16 1/2 would nullify previous bearish signals.
Cash: The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI, national average cash price) closed at $9.78, up 19 cents for the week. Despite last week’s rally the NSI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. The end of the previous uptrend was signaled by a bearish reversal the week of March 5 with a high of $9.98. Wave A (first wave) came to an end the week of March 26 with a low of $9.41, a test of support at $9.38. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $8.40 through the $9.98 high. Wave B (second wave) peaked at the previous week’s high of $9.89, leading to the beginning of Wave C (third wave) that could now test support between $9.19 and $8.77.
Old-crop Futures: The July contract closed at $15.56 1/4, up 16 cents for the week. July soybeans remains in a wide-ranging secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend. The boundaries are $9.65 1/4 (low the week of January 8) and $10.90 1/4 (high the week of February 26). The contract continues to hold in the upper-half of this range, or above $10.27 3/4 while weekly stochastics remain neutral-to-bearish below the overbought level of 80%.
New-crop Futures: The November 2018 contract closed at $10.47, 12 cents for the week. November soybeans remain in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. The week of April 2 saw the contract post a bearish reversal that included a new high of $10.60 before a lower weekly close. This price marks the peak of the previous 5-wave uptrend from the low of $9.23 1/2 (week of June 19, 2017). Weekly stochastics also posted a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% the week of April 2, confirming a move to a new downtrend.
Cash: The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.64, up 31 cents for the week. Cash SRW wheat’s weekly close-only chart is not as clear this week after cash SRW posted a new close. With most secondary (intermediate-term) technical signals still bearish, the SR.X will be given another week to confirm a potential bullish turn.
New-crop Futures: The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.98 1/2, up 21 1/4 cents for the week. The contract posted a bullish outside range last week, indicating it could start to build bullish momentum. If so it would be expected to challenge its previous high of $5.31 3/4, if not extend its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to resistance between $5.43 1/2 to $5.52 1/2.
Cash: The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.76, up 32 cents for the week. Cash HRW remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend on its weekly close-only chart. Initial support is at the previous low weekly close of $4.26 (week of March 26), then $4.17 and $4.00. The latter prices mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels respectively of the previous uptrend from $2.90 through the $4.86 high. However, a move beyond the previous high would nullify existing bearish technical signals.
New-crop Futures: The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.30 1/2, up 28 1/2 cents for the week. July KC wheat continues to consolidate within a range of converging trendlines. Resistance this coming week is calculated at $5.39 1/4 with trendline support at $4.87 1/4.
Cash: The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.96, up 6 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend for cash spring wheat could still be considered sideways. Though it has moved outside its previous range from $5.82 to $6.05, it remains within the wider range between $6.19 (close the week of November 6, 2017) and $5.62 (week of March 26). A breakout in either direction would establish the next trend.
New-Crop Futures: The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.14 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents for the week. The contract looks to be in a wide ranging sideways pattern between the recent low of $5.88 1/4 and the recent high of $6.47.
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