Technically Speaking: Corn | Soybeans | Wheat

Weekly technical analysis of corn, soybeans and wheat

Darin Newsom - DTN Senior Analyst,
May 13, 2018

Corn

Cash: The DTN National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price) closed at $3.61, down 09 cents for the week. Though no clear turn signal has been created, the NCI may have established an earlier than normal seasonal top. The previous week’s close of $3.70 was a test of resistance at $3.73, a price that marks the 76.4% retracement level of the downtrend from $4.01 through the low of $2.85. Meanwhile, weekly stochastics have posted a series of bearish crossovers above the overbought level of 80% with the latest being at the close of last week. If the NCI leaves a bearish gap down this coming week, and maintains it through Friday’s settlement, it would establish an island-top on its weekly chart.

Old-crop Futures: The July 2018 contract closed 9.75 cents lower at $3.96 1/2. The contract looks to have posted a bearish 2-week reversal top on its weekly chart. The previous week’s close was near the new high for the secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend at $4.08 1/4, followed by this past week’s close near the weekly low of $3.95 3/4. The most recent signal by weekly stochastics was a bearish crossover the week of March 12. If the contract has established a new downtrend, initial support is at $3.90 1/2, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.62. Below that is the 50% retracement mark near $3.85 1/4.

New-crop Futures: The December 2018 contract closed 6.50 cents lower at $4.14 1/2. New-crop December corn posted a bearish reversal on its weekly chart, establishing a move to a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. After posting a new high for the move of $4.23 3/4, the contract fell below the previous week’s low of $4.14 1/2.

New-crop Futures: December 2018 Corn weekly

Meanwhile, weekly stochastics established another bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, confirming the new downtrend. Initial support is at $4.13 1/4, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.79 1/4. The 38.2% retracement level is down at $4.06 3/4.

Soybeans

Cash: The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI, national average cash price) closed at $9.33, down 31 cents for the week. The NSI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend, with its weekly close testing support at $9.34. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $8.40 through the high of $9.92. Next support at the 50% retracement level is pegged at $9.16. Weekly stochastics remain bearish after establishing a crossover above the overbought level of 80% the week of March 5.

Old-crop Futures: The July contract closed at $10.03 1/4, down 33 1/2 cents for the week. July soybeans remains in a wide-ranging secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend with boundaries of $9.65 1/4 (low the week of January 8) and $10.90 1/4 (high the week of February 26). Last week’s strong sell-off put daily stochastics well below the oversold level of 20%, putting the contract in position to see a new minor (short-term) uptrend develop.

New-crop Futures: The November 2018 contract closed at $10.14 1/4, down 23 cents for the week. November soybeans remain in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend with next support near $10.07 3/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $9.23 1/2 through the high of $10.60. However, given the bearishness of weekly stochastics and the contracts 3-wave pattern, Nov beans would be expected to test support between $9.91 3/4 and $9.75 3/4.

SRW Wheat

Cash: The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.67, down 27 cents for the week. As discussed in this space last week, the SR.X was vulnerable to a Wave 5 peak and subsequent move to a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. It looks as if this is occurring, with confirmation this coming week possible in the form of continued pressure. If the SR.X is in a secondary downtrend, initial support is at $4.59, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.80 through the $4.94 high.

New-crop Futures: The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $4.98 3/4, down 27 1/2 cents for the week. The previous week’s high of $5.38 1/2 is looking more like the Wave 5 peak of the 5-wave uptrend, meaning a new secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend has been established.

HRW Wheat

Cash: The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.76 down 34 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat looks to have established a peak to its previous 5-wave uptrend with the recent high weekly settlement of $5.10, moving into a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend. If so initial support is at $4.56, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.90. The 50% retracement level is down at $4.29, with the 67% retracement mark at $4.01.

New-crop Futures: The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.18, down 37 3/4 cents for the week. As discussed in this space last week, July KC wheat looks to have established the peak of its previous 5-wave uptrend with the high of $5.68 1/2. If so, next support is near $5.04 1/2, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of thee previous uptrend from $4.40 1/4. The most recent signal by weekly stochastics was a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% the week of March 5.

New-crop Futures: July Kansas City Wheat Weekly

HRS Wheat

Cash: The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.93, down 18 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend for cash spring wheat remains sideways. Though it moved outside its previous range from $5.82 to $6.05, the SW.X remains within the wider range between $6.19 (close the week of November 6, 2017) and $5.62 (week of March 26). A breakout in either direction would establish the next trend.

New-Crop Futures: The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.11 3/4, down 17 1/4 cents for the week. The contract looks to be in a wide ranging sideways pattern between the recent low of $5.88 1/4 and the recent high of $6.47.

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