Technically Speaking: Corn | Soybeans | Wheat

Weekly technical analysis of corn, soybeans and wheat

Darin Newsom - DTN Senior Analyst,
June 4, 2018

Corn

Cash: The DTN National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price) closed at $3.59, down 14 cents for the week. The NCI posted a new low 4-week close last week indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend on its weekly close-only chart is now down. While the NCI could see a minor (short-term) rally that possible tests its recent high of $3.73, it’s expected to test next support at $3.52. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.85 through the $3.73 high.

The DTN National Corn Index closed at $3.59 on Friday 6/1.

Old-crop Futures: The July 2018 contract closed 14.50 cents lower at $3.91 1/2. The contract looks to have quickly reversed into a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend by posting a new 4-week low last week of $3.90 3/4. Next support is near $3.87 1/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.62 through the recent high of $4.12 1/4, then the 61.8% retracement level near $3.81 1/4.

New-crop Futures: The December 2018 contract closed 13.25 cents lower at $4.11 3/4. Similar to old-crop July, new-crop December corn reversed into a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend last week, posting a new 4-week low of $4.10 1/2. Next support is at $4.06 3/4, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.79 1/4 through the high of $4.29 1/2, then the 50% retracement level at $4.01 1/2.

Soybeans

Cash: The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI, national average cash price) closed at $9.56, down 20 cents for the week. The NSI remains in a secondary (intermediate-term) 3-wave downtrend on its weekly close-only chart. Support is at the recent low weekly close of $9.30 (week of May 14).

Old-crop Futures: The July contract closed at $10.21 1/4, down 20 1/4 cents for the week. July soybeans remains in a wide-ranging secondary (intermediate-term) sideways trend with boundaries of $9.65 1/4 (low the week of January 8) and $10.90 1/4 (high the week of February 26).

New-crop Futures: The November 2018 contract closed at $10.37 3/4, down 15 3/4 cents for the week. It could be argued that November soybeans established a double-top pattern on its weekly chart with last week’s high of $10.60 1/2. The previous high was $10.60 the week of April 2. Confirmation of a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend would be a move below the interim low of $10.02 (week of May 14).

SRW Wheat

Cash: The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.96, down 16 cents for the week. After extending its 5-wave secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend the previous week to a high weekly close of $5.13, the SR.X quickly fell back. With weekly stochastics still above the overbought level of 80%, initial support on the weekly close-only chart is at $4.81. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the uptrend from $3.80 through the $5.13 high.

New-crop Futures: The Chicago July 2018 contract closed at $5.23 1/4, down 19 3/4 cents for the week. After extending its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend to a high of $5.54 last week, the contract quickly fell back. This test of resistance at $5.52 1/2 uncovered increased selling interest, with support now at the 4-week low of $4.86 1/4.

HRW Wheat

Cash: The DTN National HRW Wheat Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.09 down 19 cents for the week. Cash HRW wheat extended its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend the previous week to a new high weekly close of $5.29 before falling back last week. Initial support is now at the most recent low weekly close of $4.76.

New-crop Futures: The Kansas City July 2018 contract closed at $5.40 3/4, down 23 1/4 cents for the week. The contract posted a new high of $5.68 1/2 last week before falling to its lower weekly close. Confirmation of a reversal into a new secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend would be a move below the 4-week low of $5.02 1/2.

July Kansas City wheat closed lower this week after a posting a new high last week.

HRS Wheat

Cash: The DTN HRS Wheat Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $6.89, down 43 cents for the week. Cash spring wheat looks to have established a quick reversal on its weekly close-only chart, following the previous week’s new high weekly close of $6.33 with a new 4-week low weekly close last week. Next support is down at $5.62.

New-Crop Futures: The Minneapolis September 2018 contract closed at $6.12 3/4, down 36 cents for the week. The contract posted a bearish reversal on its weekly chart last week, signaling the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. Support is now at the previous low of $5.88 1/4.

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