Frontier Weather


Frontier Weather offers insights to weather’s impact on the energy markets.

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Weather is a main driver behind residential/commercial energy demand and renewable generation. Extreme temperature swings from “normal” can cause major fluctuations of natural gas and power prices. This potential volatility increases risk but also allows for enhanced trading opportunities. Relying on Frontier Weather forecasts will help in accurately capturing these opportunities. Whether trying to protect against risk or trying to increase profits, our accurate and timely weather forecasts and insights will ensure that you are on the right side.

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Features


Frontier Weather has the energy markets covered

Natural gas and power traders turn to Frontier Weather for the latest forecasts and insights on how upcoming weather events can impact market prices. Whether you are a day-ahead trader or trying to predict gas demand well into the future, Frontier offers forecasts ranging from hourly to twelve months into the future. Continued integration with our ProphetX platform also allows for charting capabilities and data access via API.

Frontier Weather also provides:

  • Daily Weather Reports – Review analysis and discussion from our meteorologists on the confidence and risks to the forecast with morning and midday updates.
  • Weather Model Data – Thousands of graphics are generated daily for the US and regions around the world. This includes real-time updates for the ECMWF and GFS models.
  • Weighted Degree Days – Hundreds of historical and forecast data sets for the US, regional and state-level. These forecasts are updated twice daily and are weighted by gas, electric and fuel usage along with population density. Forecasts extend out as far as nine months and data dates back to 1981.
  • City Forecasts – Graphics and data for hundreds of cities in the US and Canada. Historical and forecast data available at both daily and hourly granularities.
  • Seasonal Forecasts – Temperature, precipitation and wind anomaly forecasts that extend out 12 months and are updated bi-monthly.
  • Wind Generation Forecasts – Hourly wind generation forecasts are produced using our internal ensemble for all ISOs and all wind farms in the US and Canada.
  • ProphetX – Access Frontier Weather forecasts and data using our single sign-on feature through our trading and analytics software. Analyze, build and chart weather data against natural gas, power and crop prices.
  • Consultation – 24x7x365 consultation to help with any questions you may have regarding upcoming weather events.
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Benefits


Receive timely and accurate weather data and forecast insights from a team of expert meteorologists.

When weather patterns change and large temperature swings occur, you need the most accurate and timely information in order to make the best decision possible. Frontier Weather will help reduce risk and increase profits through its wide range of weather solutions.

  • Expert Analysis – Get more than just a weather forecast with detailed discussions and the ability to use our consultation services to speak with experienced meteorologists at any time.
  • Quick Decisions – Use our real-time model suite to track the potential for significant changes in the forecast as soon as they are available to make quick, but accurate decisions.

  • Custom Datasets – Obtain access to hundreds of customized datasets in order to analyze or ingest into models. Whether you need city specific data, WDDs, weather model or crop data, Frontier offers access to all for one cost.
  • Planning Ahead – Our bi-monthly updates that extend out 12 months enable procurement of energy well into the future and allows for demand and budget planning. The seasonal forecasts also provide insights for wind farm operations and crop planting and harvest.
  • Seamless Integration – The SSO into our trading and analytics software, ProphetX, allows for access to analytics and weather in one consolidated platform. Weather data integration also enhances the capabilities of analysis, charting and delivery of data via web services.

Frontier Weather Frequently Asked Questions

We track our daily forecasts that extend out to 15 days on a rolling 90-day period and the statistics are available for access with an account. We also track our seasonal forecasts internally, extending out 9 months. For more information regarding our accuracy, please contact eric.faulkner@dtn.com.

Our forecasts are not generated by an automated routine, and so the exact forecast process varies from day-to-day. In general, our forecast starts with a weighted model blend of the GFS, GFS ensembles, ECMWF (through day 10), ECMWF ensembles (through day 15) and Canadian ensembles. Each of the forecast models undergoes an automated bias correction based on that models forecast weather regime prior to being blended together. So, the ECMWF model, for example, will not be bias corrected the same everywhere when the pattern features a cold western US and warm eastern US as it will be when the pattern features a warm western US and cold eastern US. The bias corrections also vary by forecast day, so day 10 isn’t bias corrected the same as day 2. The weights we use when blending the models together into a single forecast vary by forecast day and from one forecast update to the next. On average, the ECMWF operational and ensemble models are weighted higher than the GFS operational and ensembles as well as the Canadian ensembles since those products generally perform more accurately. Once our base forecast is produced, we make adjustments throughout the 15 day forecast period based on overall pattern expectations, model trends over recent days, and other climate indicators such as the MJO, current and forecast phases of the AO/NAO and other indices.

We issue morning and midday weather reports Monday through Friday (except holidays), with some reports issued on Sunday morning as well. On regular business days we issue a quick morning preview report around 5 AM CT, followed by our site-specific forecasts around 6 AM CT, and our full weather summary report around 7 AM CT. Our degree day data and report are issued by 7:30 AM CT. We issue a quick midday report around 11 AM CT (12 during DST), followed by our updated site-specific forecasts around 12 PM CT (1 PM during DST), our full midday weather summary by 1 PM CT (2 PM during DST) and our degree day data and report by 1:30 PM CT (2:30 DST). Tropical reports are issued as needed during the hurricane season, but at least once per day, while our seasonal reports are issued twice per month, generally on the Wednesday nearest the middle and end of the month.

As volatility in the weather increases, businesses need to protect their bottom line and manage weather risk as much as possible. With increased volatility, there are also opportunities to enhance profits through trading activities. Frontier Weather provides the solutions necessary to both minimize risk and maximize profits where opportunities become available. With our wide range of solutions and new integration into ProphetX, Frontier Weather offers the insights needed to predict weather’s impact on the energy markets.