Comprehensive weather insights help safeguard your operations and drive confident decisions to make everyday mining operations as safe and efficient as possible.Three Factors That Made Hurricane Melissa a New Kind of Storm Risk
When Hurricane Melissa jumped from a Category 1 to a Category 5 monster in less than two days, forecasters knew they were watching history unfold. Labeled the strongest storm on Earth, Melissa struck Jamaica with sustained winds up to 185 mph and a central pressure near 892 mb, making it one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record.
The storm knocked out power for about 240,000 customers, nearly a third of Cuba’s grid, and flooded southern parishes with up to 40 inches of rain. More than 735,000 people were evacuated as flooding hit Santiago and Guantánamo. In Haiti, torrential rain and landslides killed at least 25 people and destroyed hundreds of homes.
Hurricane Melissa is more than an intensity phenomenon, it underscores three developments that define a new era of storm risk: deeper ocean heat, slower motion, and limits in predictive modeling.
1. What Supercharged Hurricane Melissa?
Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water. What made Hurricane Melissa unusual was how deep that warmth extended.
Tropical cyclones typically require sea surface temperatures of at least 26 °C to form and intensify because that level of heat supports the deep convection needed for storm development.
Across sections of the Caribbean, waters above 26 °C extended down nearly 150 meters, creating a vast reservoir of heat that fueled the storm’s explosive intensification and allowed it to maintain peak strength far longer than expected.
Why This Matters
Much of this deeper thermal energy goes undetected in standard analyses. The normal depth for monitoring SSTs depends on the measurement method, but most readings capture only the top few millimeters to the first meter below the surface.
That gap matters, especially if warmer subsea temperatures fuel stronger storms. Underestimating ocean heat in the future may lead to weaker intensity forecasts and, in turn, affect how insurers, energy companies, and coastal planners prepare for extreme weather events.
2. The Slow-Moving Storm Problem
At its peak, Melissa slowed to nearly a standstill near Jamaica, crawling at just a few miles per hour. The stalled system turned rainfall into its most destructive force, producing flash floods, landslides, and prolonged blackouts across multiple islands.
The same slow movement amplified impacts in Haiti and Cuba, where heavy rainfall saturated mountainous terrain and triggered widespread flooding and road closures.
Why This Matters
This pattern reflects a broader climate signal. Changes in upper-atmospheric wind flow and a weaker jet stream are allowing hurricanes to linger longer over land.
Since the 1950s, the average forward speed of global tropical cycles has dropped by roughly 10% according to researcher James Kossin. He cautions additional water vapor could double local rainfall and flooding impacts caused by 1°C of warming.
What This Means for Risk
For businesses, slower storms mean longer disruptions and devastating economic and health losses. Hurricanes Harvey and Dorian are two powerful reminders of the destruction of slow-moving systems.
Power grids, ports, and transport systems stay offline for days instead of hours. Insurance losses rise with each additional hour of rainfall and flood exposure, and total economic impact often exceeds that of faster-moving storms.
3. Forecasting on the Edge of Complexity
Forecasting storm tracks has improved dramatically over the past 30 years. Intensity forecasting, however, remains challenging—especially when storms form in conditions outside historical patterns.
Melissa was predicted to reach Category 3, but quickly intensified far beyond that.
Why Forecasting Became Difficult
- Deep warm water helped the storm stay strong despite its slow movement.
- Low wind shear allowed thunderstorms to organize rapidly.
- Very moist air reduced the likelihood of weakening.
- Shifts in steering currents kept the storm nearly stationary.
Models usually expect slow-moving storms to weaken due to surface cooling from ocean mixing. But Melissa’s deep warmth prevented that cooling. This set up a scenario outside what most models are trained on and confounded model expectations.
Why It Matters Beyond Meteorology
The consequences of Hurricane Melissa extend well beyond forecasting. They apply to every sector exposed to physical climate risk:
Insurance and Reinsurance
- Rapid intensification complicates catastrophe modeling.
- Capital planning becomes harder when storms exceed historical extremes.
- Secondary impacts—flooding, cascading outages—increase loss totals.
Energy and Infrastructure
- Power grids and refineries face longer periods of damaging winds.
- Offshore platforms and ports encounter prolonged wave action.
- A single stalled storm can strain multiple infrastructure networks at once.
Supply Chain and Business Continuity
Even without a U.S. landfall, ripple effects reach global supply chains:
- Close Caribbean ports, airports and shipping channels
- Oil and gas shipments delayed
- Cold storage and logistics facilities disrupted
- Tourism-dependent economies experience rapid declines
According to supply chain analytics company N4EA, nearly 2% of active container shipment was affected. Within a week, 93% of shipping network capacity experienced disruption.
What Can Meteorologists Do to Improve Forests for Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes?
For the science of meteorology, training AI models to detect oceanic and atmospheric patterns preceding rapid intensification, especially through anomaly variables, is key to predicting emerging risks.
Probabilistic forecasting, which assigns likelihoods to multiple outcomes rather than a single projection, enhances resilience. AI enables this by processing vast datasets and modeling uncertainty, improving forecast accuracy and speed.
What Should Businesses and Governments Do to Prepare for the New Storm Era?
For businesses and governments, if Hurricane Melissa demonstrates a “new normal” of climate risk then updating continuity strategies, a greater investment in resilience and an awareness of direct and indirect disruptions are required.
Preparing for this new era of storm risks is dependent on a collaboration between meteorological agencies, research institutions, and the private sector. Investments in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and weather resiliency will determine how effectively we anticipate and mitigate the next generation of extreme storms.
FAQs
After my article on Hurricane Melissa, I received a few follow up questions.
1. How does Hurricane Melissa compare to other rapid-intensification storms?
From my experience, Melissa stands out because the warm water beneath it extended far deeper than usual. Other storms, like Patricia or Maria, intensified fast, but they didn’t tap into such a deep heat reservoir. That subsurface energy is what pushed Melissa far beyond typical intensity expectations.
2. What’s the biggest misconception people have about storms like Melissa?
The most common misconception I encounter is that wind speed tells the whole story. In reality, rainfall, stalling behavior, and the underlying ocean heat are often more important. A Category number doesn’t represent the full scale of risk.
3. What risks do businesses usually overlook with storms like these?
The most overlooked risks I see are the secondary ones: supply-chain delays, refinery or port shutdowns, loss of refrigeration, communication breakdowns, and contract disruptions. These impacts often last longer than the physical damage and can spread across multiple regions and markets.
4. Do stalled hurricanes change evacuation strategy?
Yes. A slow storm isn’t just a wind threat—it becomes a days-long flood event. That means evacuation decisions must account not only for landfall location but also for rainfall duration, the condition of road networks, and access to fuel or power for long periods.
5. What early warning signs should we watch for future storms?
The biggest red flag for now is unusually warm water extending below 50–100 meters. When deep heat aligns with low wind shear and moist air, the odds of rapid intensification rise sharply. These subsurface measurements aren’t yet part of many public forecasts, but they’re becoming essential.
About the Author
Renny Vandewege is the General Manager, Weather and Climate Intelligence at DTN. He leads the strategy, vision, and direction for the commercial organization in delivering innovative and relevant solutions for DTN customers whose operations, assets, safety, and bottom lines are impacted by weather.
He is the host of DTNsights podcast, a regular Forbes contributor, and serves on the PRIMET Board of Directors.