Updated European weather outlook until boreal summer

The outlook continues to be warmer than usual across much of Europe. The likelihood of above-average temperatures is higher in northern and some eastern portions of Europe. In other areas, temperatures could be closer to the seasonal average or even temporarily below it, e.g. parts of far eastern Europe/Russia or the Iberian Peninsula.

Through the first half of May, the indirect but further weakening after-effects of the final stratospheric warming on 9 March and other tropospheric variability could still lead to more frequent high-pressure blockings at high latitudes in the North Atlantic-European region. The latter could result in cooler, or colder, weather in various parts of Europe. For example, the next late Arctic outbreak should affect far northeast and far east Europe/parts of Russia as indicated in the graphic below.

Late outbreaks of colder air from the Arctic are mostly associated with overnight frosts and snowfall or mixed precipitation at lower levels.

However, positive NAO patterns may occur at times but with a northward-shifted frontal zone and/or split jet stream configuration. See graphic for March 2025 below. A split jet stream means lower air pressure in far northwestern and northern areas of Europe, higher pressure in central and western portions of Europe and again lower pressure farther south, e.g. in parts of the Mediterranean region.

Similar configurations with a split and/or weaker North Atlantic jet stream in winter and early spring have led to unusual and prolonged periods of drought in parts of Continental Europe.

This so-called memory of the strength of the North Atlantic jet stream could also play a role in the coming boreal summer.

Accordingly, later in May and into June, a somewhat drier and predominantly calmer weather pattern could continue, together with the first signs of early heat stress and increasing or persistent regional droughts in parts of Continental Europe. This is also due to the combination of low initial soil moisture and low snow cover in the Alps in early spring. This creates a persistent risk of low river and lake water levels, e.g. on parts of the Rhine and Lake Constance.

A sandwich-like pattern due to the split jet stream configuration does not promise normal weather conditions. On the contrary, extreme weather, including drought and heat waves are likely to occur more often in parts of Continental Europe. By contrast, an increased risk of severe weather conditions exists in peripheral areas, especially on the Iberian Peninsula, in line with the repeatedly deep long-wave troughing in the eastern North Atlantic and a temporarily westward shift of the Azores high.

The latest temperature, precipitation, and wind departure forecasts for June are shown below.

 

Conclusion

Above-average temperatures, but cooler spells conceivable, with drier conditions or close average precipitation and lower winds. However, it will be wetter and windier at times, especially in the northwest, and occasionally in north and northeast Europe. Prolonged droughts are possible in May and heat waves in boreal summer. There is a risk of severe weather in parts of southern Europe/the Mediterranean region and on the Iberian Peninsula.

 

About the author

Dr. Jens Bonewitz

Dr. Jens Bonewitz is an experienced long-range energy meteorologist at DTN. He consults with utility and renewable energy clients to help plan and prepare for the impact of weather. He combines research and its practical applications to produce meaningful weather forecasts within the S2S range.