The European weather trend late May and June 2025

The forecast indicates an ongoing risk of drought in parts of Europe later in May, with extreme weather risks in the south. June offers wetter conditions.

The outlook continues to indicate warmer than usual across the western half of Europe in May. Thus, the likelihood of above-average temperatures is higher in northern, west-north-western and central-eastern parts of Europe. In other areas, temperatures could be closer, or temporarily below the seasonal average.

More frequent high-pressure blockings (also at high latitudes, for example into the Arctic Sea or over Greenland) are expected in the North Atlantic-Scandinavian region until late May. This would lead to cooler or colder weather further east of the high-pressure ridge. and only slowly shift further east.

 

Later in May, a mostly drier and predominantly calmer weather pattern could continue (see graphs further below), together with persistent regional droughts in large parts of the mid-latitudes, incl. the UK.

As for the high-pressure predominance, other factors could come into play. For example, the North Atlantic Basin has seen above-average temperatures for a long period, especially relevant at high latitudes, and is expected to stay warmer than normal, albeit somewhat cooler compared to 2024. Anomalous warmth in the Arctic has led to record low sea-ice extent.

According to scientific studies, the latter conditions might support high-pressure patterns in the North Atlantic-Scandinavian region within the sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast horizon.

Positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns are likely to return in late May and into June (see ECMWF’s Weather Regime frequency Ensemble forecast below) with the ongoing risk of a further northward-shifted frontal zone and split jet stream configurations.

A split jet stream means low pressure across far northwestern and northern portions of Europe, high pressure in the mid-latitudes and again low pressure in the more southern portions of Europe. Similar configurations with a split and/or weaker North Atlantic jet stream in winter and spring have led to unusual and prolonged periods of drought in larger parts of Continental Europe and the UK.

Source: ECMWF, Reading /UK/

 

The latest ECMWF weather regime probability forecast initially points to an Atlantic ridge (AtR), followed by a European-Scandinavian high-pressure blocking and later by a stronger AtR with only occasional signs of a negative NAO regime.

Given so, the ongoing risk of high-pressure blockings in all their forms (incl. at high latitudes) remains in the background. This suggests widespread settled conditions, i.e. drier and calmer, with colder snaps mainly across eastern and northeastern portions of Europe.

Toward the end of May and through much of June, there is a slightly increasing probability of a positive NAO regime. The latter goes hand in-hand with emerging wetter and windier conditions from the eastern North Atlantic, consistent with some S2S signals.

In addition, the above-mentioned conditions could set in earlier, meaning a  more active North Atlantic pattern might start to affect the UK and parts of western Europe into Wk-21.

The latest temperature, precipitation, and wind departure forecasts for May and June are shown below.

 

Conclusion

Colder spells are likely at first, with broadly drier conditions and lower winds. However, it could get wetter and windier from late May and into June. Prolonged drought conditions continue. Parts of the Mediterranean, as well as in southern and southeastern portions of Europe are at risk for severe weather.

 

About the author

Dr. Jens Bonewitz

Dr. Jens Bonewitz is an experienced long-range energy meteorologist at DTN. He consults with utility and renewable energy clients to help plan and prepare for the impact of weather. He combines research and its practical applications to produce meaningful weather forecasts within the S2S range.