On October 28, 2020, DTN Transportation Business Expert Chris Rees and DTN Senior Energy Meteorologist Matthew Dobson hosted a webinar for UK and European utilities and transport organizations to help them better understand and prepare for the upcoming winter.
Below are just a few highlights. Watch the video for the full report and forecast.
Winter round-up & outlook highlights
Winter 2019-2020 review
- From November 2019 to February 2020, northwestern Europe experienced climate anomalies.
- Europe had its warmest December through February on record; 3.4 C higher than 1981-2010 climatology and 1.4 C higher than the last record set in 2015 to 2016.
- It was the windiest February since 1990 for most of England and Wales, as well as for the low countries and far northwest Germany.
- It was the fifth wettest winter for the UK since 1950 and was often mild — especially in the south.
- Only a small number of nights through last winter saw >50% of UK road sites falling below 0C.
Winter 2020-2021 — a preliminary outlook
- There is a 15-20% chance of the extreme cold experienced during late November and December 2010 repeating this season.
- The early to mid-winter forecast summary:
- November will begin mostly mild and westerly in northwest and central Europe. Overall, it will be wet in the northwest and dry in the southwest.
- There will be a pattern change in the second half of November as northerly cold plunges more frequently into western Europe.
- There is a greater chance of cold weather patterns in December than in many recent years across western Europe.
- The occurrence of rainfall and strong wind events will be below long-term averages for northwestern Europe.
- During January and February, a westerly flow will increase in northern Europe, making conditions less cold. Southwestern Europe, however, will experience lingering cold.
For complete expert insights, replay the recorded webinar on-demand.
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