Refined Fuels Market Prime for Predictive AI Solution

Innovation in a dynamic world

Innovation is at the core of tech companies—the ambition to create new solutions for how people live, work, and thrive. Where emerging concepts and new applications solve previously unknown problems, improve efficiencies, reduce risks, and allow people to achieve more.

For energy markets, innovation is underway as DTN, an industry leader in data analytics, and Stovell AI, a leader in artificial intelligence (AI) predictive solutions, announced a new venture that could signal big opportunities for refined fuels. Literally.

“We’re talking about decisions that people negotiate every day. High-volume, large-scale profits or loss at risk,” explains Jim Stovell, CEO and president of Stovell AI Systems. “And so, we’re using rich, granular-level data and artificial intelligence to better inform those decisions.”

Recently, Jim Stovell led a virtual symposium to cast light on a groundbreaking energy market AI solution and peel back how DTN data is at its core.

When Jim speaks, he’s passionate about identifying market advantages. “Technology creates opportunities,” he says. There is palpable energy when he delivers the premise of this partnership.

As Jim responds to questions, he meanders between technical “nerdy” descriptions and easy-to-comprehend laymen’s terms. “Our solution ties together all current market conditions—including weather, shipping routes, terminal inventories, and more.”

He shares that a complex data model is compiled and deduced to give a simple green or red indicator for given market opportunities. When presented simply, the intel gives people greater confidence within an otherwise volatile, dynamic marketplace.

Of course, at the heart of this partnership is artificial intelligence.

“In spite of the popular dystopian myths, the applications of AI continually change how we engage with everyday life,” he shares, almost apologetically. “From how we navigate travel on smartphone maps to choosing what we watch on YouTube.”

 

Better in, better out

By harnessing “deep, granular-level data and employing artificial intelligence algorithms,” the partnership is bringing to market a highly accurate, predictive solution. That’s the bold premise behind the forged alliance between DTN and Stovell AI.

“Our goal is to amaze and delight,” Jim grins.

Dubbed Demand Vision™, the solution is the convergence of reliable data and an intelligence model that demonstrates “AI can be used for good.” In fact, that’s the hero of this story: the partnership. Because while each is a major player in their own industries, the coming together is where the magic happens.

“Neither one of us could do this without each other,” he muses. “It’s having trustworthy, reliable data together with artificial intelligence modeling, that’s an example of how tech innovation is changing the way we work and thrive.”

AI requires dependable, accurate, and especially, granular-level data to be mixed into specific characteristic-based intelligence models. “What we’re doing produces better, more accurate, predictive outcomes—again and again and again. Better input creates better output. And that’s because of DTN. No one else comes close.”

 

Repeatable. Accurate. Dependable.

To make a point, Jim relays a metaphor about counting cards in blackjack. “It’s frowned upon [by casinos] because by knowing what’s been played and what’s still in the shoe changes the odds. We’re doing the same thing: using data to deduce likelihoods.”

“When we reduce uncertainty, we reduce fear. There’s a lot on the line with each transaction. Having highly accurate predictions leads to greater confidence.”

Refined fuel markets transactions can hit or miss because of unknown demand spikes and fluctuations. And that’s what Demand Vision sets out to solve. The system interprets the big picture with many datapoints, identifies risks in supply chain or transportation, reducing uncertainty, and in-turn increasing the odds of a given outcome.

“Every day, people negotiate high volume, high value, large-scale pricing decisions with tons of underlying volatility and uncertainty. Demand can spike or fluctuate. Where storms or shipping delays have influence. It’s dynamic, and that creates uncertainty.”

Jim continues, “Because dependable, reliable data is driven into the specific intelligence characteristics, we can predict, with ongoing success, the likelihood of where market opportunities will be. We can more accurately identify the elements for success before they align.”

Accurately predicting spikes or fluctuations, he explains, “that’s where opportunities exist. You don’t have days or weeks. Boom, now that was yesterday. Opportunity is gone.”

He goes on.

“When we reduce uncertainty, we reduce fear. There’s a lot on the line with each transaction. Having highly accurate predictions leads to greater confidence.”

With increasingly accurate outcomes, markets can set better strategies. The downstream results include more wins and better margins.  And a quiet growth in reputation and trust within your business relationships.

Another byproduct of confidence, with greater market intelligence comes temperament. Understanding the economic temperament within your market can go a long way toward improving relationships between your customers and your customers’ customers.

 

Instant-on ROI

All levels of management appreciate immediate results. Instant-on access bypasses lengthy IT integration and sales training, and leaps teams directly into actionable decision making.

On interface and design, he says, “We looked at Google Maps and said, ‘Users don’t have to understand algorithm and datapoints, they just have to trust the source and have a good user experience.”

“Design was a focus from day one,” he states adamantly. The user-experience and form factor had to deliver simple actionable insights and instant-on access to its clients. This creates an ROI within days—not months (or years!) that capital expenditures are typically afforded.

For both DTN and Stovell AI, the shared goals for an enterprise-class subscription were accuracy, dependable, and instant-on.

When the complexity is removed, users get accurate intel delivered in a way that’s easy to use and simple to consume.

Goals for an enterprise-class subscription

1. Accurate. Deliver high accuracy, dependable, data-driven predictions of increasingly strong likelihood of outcomes.
2. Dependable. Timely delivery for human use in a proper form factor that delivers easy-to-consume insights that inspire strategic, repeatable market decisions.
3. Instant-On. Release an instant-on solution to mitigate capital risk and ROI concerns.

 

A good fit

So, what makes a good tech partner? Sometimes opposites attract. In this case, it’s more yin and yang. For DTN and Stovell AI, each brings significant expertise and leadership to the table in areas where the other doesn’t.

“DTN was obvious. They’re the industry leader in reliable data—data that is rich, granular, historical, dependable, and above all, trustworthy. There is no one else.”

In an era where it seems everyone wants to tout an AI solution, finding a true heavy-hitter capable of delivering a remarkable state-of-the-art system isn’t necessarily easy. Unfortunately, lot of companies know the buzzwords but can’t walk the walk. But with nearly a decade of success in information systems and intelligence modelling, Stovell AI proved to be the real deal.

Prior to Stovell AI, Jim was a leader in hedge fund management. That’s when he realized a quiet skill in finding small but meaningful market advantages. Now with Stovell AI, he and his team peel back layers of processes to pinpoint specific market scenarios to design algorithm-based intelligence models.

For Jim, “DTN was obvious. They’re the industry leader in reliable data—data that is rich, granular, historical, dependable, and above all, trustworthy. There is no one else.”

For AI pioneers, DTN is the world’s leading source for weather, energy, and agribusiness data and analytics, serving the industries that feed, fuel, and protect our world.  To learn more about Demand Vision™ for refined fuel market intelligence, visit Stovell.ai.